As we head into the cooler months of the AFL season, it's an opportune moment to assess the early trends and patterns that are shaping up for 2026. With the season now a third of the way through, some teams are already emerging as contenders, while others are struggling to find their footing.
One of the most intriguing aspects of this season is the divergence in footballing philosophies. We're seeing a clear split between teams that prioritize control and possession, and those that thrive on a more aggressive, surge-style approach.
Possession and Position: The Great Divide
The last five premiership-winning teams have consistently demonstrated exceptional ball control and positioning. This season, only Hawthorn has ticked both boxes so far, establishing themselves as early flag contenders.
Teams like Sydney and Gold Coast dominate the front half of the ground but struggle with possession, while others, like reigning premiers Brisbane, excel at controlling the game's tempo. This split reflects a growing divide in footballing ideologies, with teams increasingly adopting extreme approaches.
Launch Zones and Scoring Strategies
This philosophical divide carries over to where teams generate their scores. Scoring off intercepts remains the primary source for all teams, with about 60% of scores coming from transition play. However, the location and manner of obtaining these intercepts vary according to each team's set-up.
While teams capitalize more on turnovers closer to goal, they are more likely to win the ball in their own defensive half. This has encouraged teams to adopt higher presses up the ground. Some teams, like the Suns and Lions, excel at turning front-half dominance into points, while others, like Collingwood, over-perform when winning the ball close to their goal through a chaotic style.
Defending the Lead: The Unsung Heroes
Defense often takes a backseat to the glamor of attacking play, but it's a crucial aspect of the modern game. With the sheer size of teams and the field, it's impossible to defend everywhere. Teams must choose what to prioritize with limited player numbers and energy.
The top two teams on the ladder, Sydney and Fremantle, concede relatively few opposition marks while also conceding the most forward-50 ground balls per game. This runs counter to the league trend, which has seen a rise in marks inside 50. Both teams spoil often, creating more ground balls, which can be a double-edged sword.
The Luck Factor and Tight Finals Race
Scoring accuracy often decides games, and sometimes a team's luck with kicking can make all the difference. So far this year, teams like the Eagles and Hawks have faced opponents who have shot the lights out against them. Over a season, this luck can significantly impact a team's performance.
Looking at the ladder, it appears that this year's race for the newly expanded final 10 is tight. Thirteen teams are within a win of a finals spot, with another just two points further adrift. While this seems like a large number, it's the same as last season at this time. The expanded finals format hasn't yet expanded the finals race as much as some might have hoped.
Final Thoughts
As we head deeper into the season, it will be fascinating to see how these early trends play out. Will the extremes of footballing ideologies continue to dominate, or will we see a return to more balanced approaches? Can Sydney and Fremantle maintain their early lead, or will other teams rise to challenge them? One thing is certain: there's still plenty of footy left to be played, and the AFL season promises to deliver plenty of surprises and excitement.
